Probability Cont. - by Jon

I intend to conclude my post from a day ago that displayed three head/tail sequences from randomly flipping a penny. Brody got the answer spot on, but the exact answer wasn't something I was looking for.

HHHHHTTTTT
HTTHHTHTHT
HTHTHTHTHT

This post was more an adventure into human psychology. Unfortunately, many of our readers are preoccupied with "buying bread that day" and "sharpening there gardening tools into more dangerous looking bartering tools" over in the Village of Shouldice (see prior post), so comments were few and far between.

The probability of attaining any of these three H/T sequence upon 10 flips of a penny are equally likely. However, some people happen to trick themselves into thinking that the first and/or third have differing degrees of probability depending on the information inherent in each sequence. By information I am refering to the the ability to recognize patterns - or simply pattern recognition. Because the first and third sequence each have conspicuous patterns to them, the pattern is recognized and believed to carry information. It is a misconception that information is greater in complexity than random noise. It simply depends on how you calibrate your system (brain) and what exactly you are looking for.
Essentially, because we can percieve information within the first and last sequence, we may become fooled into thinking the probability of attaining such a pattern by mere coin-flipping is higher than the random, non-sensical, pattern of the second sequence.
I have a rock at home with lichen on one side in the form of a happy face. It looks quite commical and upon first glance you might think "what the hell are the odds of that?". Well, the odds are the same for any other random orientation of lichen, it just happens that this particular orientation I attribute significance to because i'm calibrated to see such patterns.